FARGO, ND (NDSU) - A calculator developed by North Dakota State University Extension to help producers estimate the Agricultural Risk Coverage (ARC) and Price Loss Coverage (PLC) payments they may receive in 2019 is available online.
Visit www.ag.ndsu.edu/farmmanagement/farm-bill or search for "NDSU farm bill."
The payments are for the 2018 crop year, but final determination and issuance of actual payments are not made until the last three months of 2019.
Producers face a challenging profit environment for 2019 and any source of
revenue will be important in projecting cash flow, according to Andy Swenson,
NDSU Extension farm and family resource management specialist.
"The most current U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) projection of 2018
marketing year average (MYA) prices indicate that base acres of wheat, corn,
barley, canola, sunflowers, flax, safflower, small chickpea and sorghum should
generate payments if enrolled in the PLC program," says Swenson. "Field peas are on the edge, meaning any reduction in the 2018 MYA price also would trigger a PLC payment."
PLC payments on a crop's base acres will vary from farm to farm according to the PLC payment yield.
After the adjustments for getting paid on 85 percent of base and a 6.6 percent sequestration rate, an average PLC payment for each base acre of the crop would be about $46 for canola, $37 for sunflower, $26 for flax, $17 for barley and corn, and $11 for wheat.
The PLC safety net is triggered by low prices. Payments will be reduced or
eliminated if prices rise, but the loss of revenue could be offset by greater
income from the market if producers grow those crops.
"The ARC program is more complicated and difficult to project because it is a safety net triggered by the combination of price and yield," says Swenson.
Using current USDA price projections and average county yields for 2018, no ARC payments would be made for crops with the largest base acres in North Dakota; wheat, soybeans and corn.
Swenson estimates that with the current USDA MYA price projections, the 2018 county average yield would have to be at least 4 percent lower than the county benchmark yield to trigger an ARC payment for soybeans, 5 percent lower to trigger a payment for wheat and at least 9 percent lower to trigger a payment for corn.
Few, if any, counties will have these low yields because in 2018, the overall state average yield was a record high for wheat, the second highest on record for corn and the third highest on record for soybeans, Swenson adds.
Current USDA price projections indicate that if actual 2018 county yields are the same as the county benchmark yield, chickpea base acres would generate a maximum ARC payment, and lentils, safflower, canola, sunflower, flax and sorghum base acres would generate some payments if those crops were enrolled in ARC.
At USDA's current price projection, barley base acres enrolled in the ARC
program would generate a payment if the county yield was one bushel or more
below the county average yield.
Swenson notes that the 2018 MYA prices will not be known for several months and payment projections can change.
The ARC-PLC calculator will be updated each month with the latest USDA
FARGO, N.D. - USDA's National Agricultural Statistics Service has release their cattle and sheep inventory reports.
All cattle and calves in North Dakota as of January 1, 2019 totaled 1.83 million head, down 2 percent from January 1, 2018. All cows and heifers that had calved totaled 1.00 million head, up 2 percent from last year. Beef cows totaled 985,000 head, up 2 percent from last year. Milk cows totaled 15,000 head, down 6 percent from January 1, 2018. All heifers 500 pounds and over totaled 415,000 head, down 6 percent from last year.
Steers weighing 500 pounds and over totaled 245,000 head, down 6 percent from last year. Bulls weighing 500 pounds and over totaled 65,000 head, down 7 percent from last year. Calves under 500 pounds totaled 105,000 head, down 5 percent from January 1, 2018.
All cattle on feed fed for slaughter in North Dakota feedlots totaled 59,000 head, up 2 percent from the previous year. The 2018 calf crop totaled 930,000 head, down 3 percent from 2017.
All sheep and lamb inventory in North Dakota on January 1, 2019 totaled 72,000 head, up 2,000 from last year.
Breeding sheep inventory totaled 45,000 head, a record low and down 4,000 from last year. Ewes one year and older totaled 36,000 head, a record low and down 3,000 from the previous year. Rams one year and older totaled 2,000, unchanged from last year. Total replacement lambs totaled 7,000 head, down 1,000 from last year.
Market sheep and lambs totaled 27,000 head, up 6,000 from last year. A total of 1,000 head were mature sheep (one year and older) while the remaining 26,000 were under one year. Market lamb weight groups were estimated as follows: 2,000 lambs were under 65 pounds; 8,000 were 65-84 pounds; 9,000 were 85-105 pounds; 7,000 were over 105 pounds.
The 2018 lamb crop totaled 45,000 head, down 4,000 from 2017. The 2018 lambing rate was 115 per 100 ewes one year and older, compared with 117 in 2017.
Sheep deaths totaled 2,000 head, unchanged from 2017. Lamb deaths totaled 6,000 head, unchanged from last year. Sheep and lambs slaughtered on farm totaled 800 head, up 100 from 2017.
Shorn wool production during 2018 was 410,000 pounds, down 10,000 from 2017. Sheep and lambs shorn totaled 59,000 head, down 2,000 from 2017. Weight per fleece was 6.9 pounds, unchanged from last year. The average price paid for wool sold in 2018 was $1.32 per pound, compared with $1.09 in 2017. The total value of wool produced in North Dakota was 541,000 dollars in 2018.
(Copyright 2018 by The Associated Press. All Rights Reserved.)